Final Predictions for the 86th Academy Awards [GRID] :
Overall I predict ‘Gravity’ will win 8 Oscars, followed by ’12 Years A Slave’ with 3
Best Picture:
Prediction: ‘12 Years A Slave’
Alternative: ‘Gravity’
Should Have Been Nominated: ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’
Despite the fact that Steve McQueen’s masterpiece ’12 Years A Slave’ scored one nomination less than ‘American Hustle’ and ‘Gravity’ it remains the film to beat among the nine nominees. The film has gravitas, social significance, historical importance and relevance to the present day, something that the two other frontrunners ‘American Hustle’ and ‘Gravity’ lack. And from looking at the impressive nominations it did win, ’12 Years A Slave’ has broad support in the main branches of the academy, the directors, writers, actors, film editors. The Best Picture Academy Award is voted on by all the branches of the Academy. It is unlikely that there will be an upset but if there was my money would be on ‘Gravity’, my favourite film of the year, and ground-braking, daring, visual masterpiece. If ‘Gravity’ were to win it would join ‘The Sound of Music’ (1965) and Titanic (1997) as the only two other films to win Best Picture without a screenplay nomination and it would be the first predominately 3D film to win.
Best Director:
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, ‘Gravity’
Alternative: Steve McQueen, ‘12 Years A Slave’
Should Have Been Nominated: Spike Jonze, ‘Her’
For nine of the past 10 years the film that has won Best Picture, has also won Best Director. That changed last year when Ben Affleck director of Best Picture winning ‘Argo’ (2012) wasn’t nominated for Best Director and Ang Lee won for ‘Life Of Pi’ (2012). ‘Gravity’ is similar to ‘Life Of Pi’, a 3D shot film with spectacular visual effects directed by master of the craft. Alfonso Cuaron is one of the greatest directors working today, having directed what I consider to be the best film of the 2000’s decade and one of the best films ever the dystopian masterpiece ‘Children Of Men’ (2006). Although Steve McQueen is worthy of the Best Director Oscar as well, his hand as a director is less present in his film compared to the huge ambition and daring of ‘Gravity’. I further predict ‘Gravity’ to take home the most Oscars on the night, sweeping the technical categories. Remarkably it is only the fifth film in Oscar history to score nominations in all seven of the technical categories.
Best Actor:
Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, ‘Dallas Buyers Club’
Alternative: Leonardo Di Caprio, ‘Wolf Of Wall Street’
Should Have Been Nominated: Robert Redford, ‘All Is Lost’
This year’s Best Actor race is by far the most competitive I have seen in many years. Of all the categories an upset is most likely to occur here. Since winning the Golden Globe and SAG (Screen Actors Guild Award), Mathew McConaughey’s role as the HIV positive straight cowboy who started a unapproved AIDS medicine drug smuggling business into the US in the 1980’s is the frontrunner and presumptive Oscar winner. Although I am predicting a McConaughey win, I wouldn’t be surprised if Leonardo Di Caprio won for his controversial role in ‘Wolf Of Wall Street’. Four-time Oscar nominee, Leonardo Di Caprio is the Hollywood leading ‘man most overdue for an Oscar win’ and most critics believe his latest performance to be his best yet. So crammed is this category another five Oscar worthy performances missed out this year: Tom Hanks for ‘Captain Phillips’, Robert Redford ‘All Is Lost’, Joaquin Pheonix ‘Her, Forrest Whittaker ‘Lee Daniel’s: The Butler’ and Oscar Issac ‘Inside Llyewn Davis’.
Best Actress:
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, ‘Blue Jasmine’
Alternative: None
Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Thomspon, ‘Saving Mr. Banks’
Cate Blanchett’s Oscar for her stunning performance in ‘Blue Jasmine’ is the most bankable Oscar outcome this year. As sure as night follows day Cate will win her first Best Actress Oscar. With her sixth Oscar nominations Cate Blanchett joins the elite group of the most highly nominated working actress: in a world of her own Meryl Streep nominated again this year for ‘August: Osage County’ for a total of 15 noms, Judi Dench nominated for ‘Philomena’ for a total of 7 noms, and both Maggie Smith and Kate Winslet also have six nominations. What’s more Cate’s performance is the best of the year.
Best Supporting Actor:
Prediction: Jared Leto, ‘Dallas Buyers Club’
Alternative: Michael Fassbender, ’12 Years A Slave’
Should Have Been Nominated: Will Forte, ‘Nebraska’
Another easy to predict category, Jared Leto has won almost all of the other award ceremonies Best Supporting Actor awards this year and is the clear favourite for the Oscar. His main competitor Michael Fassbender has refused to campaign for the award which has cost him greatly. If you want to win an Oscar you need to play the campaign game. In the ‘gay Oscar movie of the year’, Leto plays an HIV positive transgendered prostitute who helps smuggle unapproved AIDS medicine into the US.
Best Supporting Actress:
Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o, ’12 Years A Slave’
Alternative: Jennifer Lawrence, ‘American Hustle’
Should Have Been Nominated: Scarlett Johansson ‘Her’
In one of the best and most important films of this decade, ’12 Years A Slave’ Lupita Nyong’o’s performance is the beating heart of the film. Playing the role of a horrifically abused slave on a cotton plantation her performance is masterful, heart-braking and deeply haunting. Nyong’o deserves to win. However Jenifer Lawrence’s performance in ‘American Hustle’ was the best part of a popular if overrated 10 nomination Oscar film. Lawrence won the Golden Globe and lost the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) award. American Hustle clearly beloved by the Academy voters could potentially walk away from the night empty handed, giving Lawrence Best Supporting Actress could be a way to avoid that fate. Lawrence won Best Actress last year and might be seen as being ‘too soon’ to win another. Ultimately the sheer importance and power of Nyong’o’s performance suggest that she will pull through to win.
Original Screenplay:
Prediction: Spike Jonze, ‘Her’
Alternative: David O’Russell. Eric Singer, ‘American Hustle’
Should Have Been Nominated: Joel and Ethan Coen, ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’
The word is: if the popular but overrated 10 nomination juggernaut that is ‘American Hustle’ is to win any major award it’s best bet is to win Best Original Screenplay. It is the favourite in this category to win and could very easily pull it off. I’m predicting Spike Jonze to win for his darkly satirical and brilliantly original screenplay for his masterpiece ‘Her’. Every year Oscar commentators suggest that the voters will spread the love around and give an Oscar to a beloved film just because it won’t win in the other categories. I believe this assumption to be false. Except for Best Picture, each category is voted on by a branch composed of its practitioners. Screenplay writers vote for Best Screenplay and I believe as practitioners of their field they will award the superior work based on merit and not based on Oscar politics.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Prediction: John Ridley, ’12 Years A Slave’
Alternative: Terrence Winter, ‘Wolf Of Wall Street’
Should Have Been Nominated: Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix ‘Blue Is The Warmest Colour’
As ‘Schindler’s List’ (1993) put a human face on the Holocaust, so has ’12 Years A Slave’ humanized American slavery. The story of Solomon Northrup a free man, captured and sold into slavery was the perfect access for modern audiences to understand the arbitrary horrors of slavery. ’12 Years A Slave’ will easily win Best Adapted Screenplay.
Other Categories:
Best Animated Feature:
Prediction: ‘Frozen’
Alternative: ‘The Wind Rises’
Best Documentary Feature:
Prediction: ’20 Feet From Stardom’
Alternative: ‘The Act of Killing’
Best Foreign Language Film:
Prediction: ‘The Great Beauty’, Italy
Alternative: ‘The Hunt’, Denmark
Best Cinematography:
Prediction: ‘Gravity’
Alternative: None
Best Costume Design:
Prediction: ‘The Great Gatsby’
Alternative: ’12 Years A Slave’
Best Film Editing:
Prediction: ‘Gravity’
Alternative: ‘Captain Phillips’
Best Original Score:
Prediction: ‘Gravity’
Alternative: ‘Philomena’
Best Original Song:
Prediction: ‘Let It Go’, ‘Frozen
Alternative: ‘Ordinary Love’, ‘Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom’
Best Production Design:
Prediction: ‘12 Years A Slave’
Alternative: ‘Gravity’
Best Visual Effects:
Prediction: ‘Gravity’
Alternative: ‘The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug’
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
Prediction: ‘Dallas Buyers Club’
Alternative: None
Best Sound Editing:
Prediction: ‘Gravity’
Alternative: ‘Captain Phillips’
Best Sound Mixing:
Prediction: ‘Gravity’
Alternative: ‘Captain Phillips’
Jeremy Smith's Movie Blog 